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As on Apr 25, 2024 12:00 AM |
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Japan's index of leading economic indicators stood at 111.8 in February 2024, unchanged from preliminary estimates and up from a final 109.5 in the previous month. This marks the highest reading since August 2022, with consumer sentiment reaching its highest level since April 2019. In April 2024, the service sector expanded the most since May 2023, while factory activity saw its smallest decline in 11 months, indicating a near-stabilization in the economy. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Japan's index of coincident economic indicators was revised upward to 111.6 in February 2024 from a flash reading of 110.9 but fell from an upwardly revised 112.3 in January. This marks the second straight month of declines, indicating the lowest figure since May 2022. The country is grappling with challenges such as elevated inflation, weak consumption, and a persistent decline in manufacturing activity, hindering sustained economic recovery. Additionally, uncertainties persist regarding overseas economies, including the impacts of global monetary tightening and concerns about a slow turnaround in China. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Japan's leading index improved to the highest level in one-and-a-half years as initially estimated in February, the latest data from the Cabinet Office showed on Thursday. The leading index, which measures future economic activity, rose to 111.8 in February from 109.5 in the previous month. That was in line with the flash data published on April 5. Further, this was the highest score since August 2022, when it was 112.9. Meanwhile, the coincident index, measures the current economic situation, dropped to 111.6 from 112.3 a month ago. In the initial estimate, the score was 110.9. The lagging index strengthened to 106.8 in February from 105.2 in the prior month. The latest score was revised down from 107.4. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Germany's GfK Consumer Climate indicator rose to -24.2 in May 2024, the highest reading in two years, up from a revised -27.3 previously. Income expectations surged to their highest level since January 2022, with a reading of 10.7 compared to -1.5 in April. Economic prospects also improved to 0.7 from -3.1, while the propensity to buy increased to -12.6 from -15.3. However, the tendency to save reached an extreme high of 14.9, up from 12.4, as uncertainty about the country's economic development persisted, with no strong stimulus for domestic demand. Powered by Commodity Insights |
South Korea's gross domestic product was up a seasonally adjusted 1.3 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2024, the Bank of Korea said on Thursday. Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased by 2.5 percent compared to the previous quarter. On the expenditure side, private consumption rose by 0.8 percent, as expenditures on goods (e.g., clothing) and services (e.g., restaurants and accommodation) increased. Government consumption grew by 0.7 percent, as expenditures on goods increased. Construction investment expanded by 2.7 percent, as building construction and civil engineering both increased. Facilities investment fell by 0.8 percent, driven by decreased transportation equipment. Exports expanded by 0.9 percent, as exports of IT items, such as cellular phones, increased. Imports contracted by 0.7 percent, owing to decreased imports of electronic equipment. On the production side, agriculture, forestry & fishing fell by 3.1 percent, led by a decrease in crop yields. Manufacturing was up by 1.2 percent, mainly due to increases in chemical products and transportation equipment. Construction expanded by 4.8 percent, owing to increases in both building construction and civil engineering. Services grew by 0.7 percent, led by an increase in wholesale and retail trade, accommodation & food services. On a yearly basis, GDP was up 3.4 percent - again topping expectations for an increase of 2.4 percent and accelerating from 2.2 percent in the three months prior. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Amidst anticipation surrounding the release of US GDP data for the first quarter, the dollar index maintained a subdued stance around 105.8. Investors are carefully positioning themselves, recognizing the potential influence of this data on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Additionally, market attention is directed towards Friday's PCE price index report, offering further insights into inflation trends, a pivotal factor for the Fed. The prevailing sentiment reflects a subtle shift, with reduced expectations for rate cuts by both the ECB and the Federal Reserve this year, attributed to persistent inflationary pressures and indications of economic resilience in the US. While the dollar experienced recent declines against several major currencies, its ascent to fresh 34-year highs against the Japanese yen underscores the heightened anticipation for policy cues from the Bank of Japan. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Crude oil inventories in the U.S. unexpectedly pulled back sharply in the week ended April 19th, according to a report released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. The EIA said crude oil inventories plunged by 6.4 million barrels last week after jumping by 2.7 million barrels in the previous week. Economists had expected crude oil inventories to increase by 1.6 million barrels. At 453.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3 percent below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA added. The report also said gasoline inventories edged down by 0.6 million barrels last week and are about 4 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. Meanwhile, distillate fuel inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, increased by 1.6 million barrels last week but are about 7 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. Powered by Commodity Insights |
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China fell by 0.2 percent in March 2024 to 151.5 (2016=100), following a downwardly revised 0.3 percent decrease in February. As a result, the LEI declined by 1.3 percent during the six-month period ending March 2024, a smaller decrease than the contraction of 2.1 percent over the previous six-month period. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for China also dropped significantly by 1.7 percent in March 2024 to 146.4 (2016=100), more than reversing a 0.7 percent increase in February. The CEI grew by 1.6 percent in the six-month period between September 2023 and March 2024, a faster pace than the 0.4 percent growth rate over the previous six months period. The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Powered by Commodity Insights |
With orders for transportation equipment showing a substantial increase, the Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods surged by more than expected in the month of March. The report said durable goods orders soared by 2.6 percent in March after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.7 percent in February. The bigger than expected increase in durable goods orders came as orders for transportation equipment shot up by 7.7 percent in March. Orders for non-defense aircraft and parts led the way higher, skyrocketing by 30.6 percent. Excluding the surge in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders crept up by 0.2 percent in March after inching up by 0.1 percent in February. Ex-transportation orders were expected to rise by 0.3 percent. The report said orders for computers and electronic products advanced by 0.8 percent, while orders for fabricated metal products edged up by 0.2 percent. Orders for both electrical equipment, appliances and components and machinery also inched up by 0.1 percent, but orders for primary metals fell by 0.5 percent. The Commerce Department also said orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key indicator of business spending, rose by 0.2 percent in March after climbing by 0.4 percent in February. Shipments in the same category, which is the source data for equipment investment in GDP, also crept up by 0.2 percent in March after falling by 0.6 percent in February. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Germany's Ifo Business Climate indicator climbed to 89.4 in April 2024, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. Sentiment toward Europe's largest economy surged to its highest level since May 2023, driven by growing expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and a gradual easing of inflationary pressures. Companies expressed less pessimism about the future (89.9 vs. 87.7 in March) and adopted a less negative view of the current business situation (88.9 vs. 88.1). Powered by Commodity Insights |
Producer prices in Japan rose 2.3 percent on year in March, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday. This was up from the upwardly revised 2.2 percent gain in February (originally 2.1 percent). On a monthly basis, producer prices surged 0.8 percent - accelerating from 0.3 percent in the previous month. Excluding international transportation, producer prices rose 0.8 percent on month and 2.2 percent on year. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Reserve Bank Of India (RBI) has stated in a latest monthly update that global growth momentum has been sustained in the first quarter of 2024 and the outlook for global trade is turning positive. Treasury yields and mortgage rates are ticking up in major economies as expectations of interest rate cuts are being pared. In India, conditions are shaping up for an extension of a trend upshift in real GDP growth, backed by strong investment demand and upbeat business and consumer sentiments. CPI inflation has gravitated to 4.9 per cent in March after averaging 5.1 per cent in the preceding two months. In the near term, however, extreme weather events may pose a risk to inflation along with prolonged geo-political tensions that could keep crude oil prices volatile. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Consumer prices in Australia rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.0 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2024, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. This showed acceleration from 0.6 percent in the three months prior. On a yearly basis, inflation rose 3.6 percent, easing from 4.1 percent in the previous three months. Powered by Commodity Insights |
A report released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday showed a substantial increase in new home sales in the U.S. in the month of March. The Commerce Department said new home sales spiked by 8.8 percent to an annual rate of 693,000 in March after plunging by 5.1 percent to a revised rate of 637,000 in February. Meanwhile, the report also said median sales price of new houses sold in March was $430,700, down 1.9 percent from $438,900 a year ago. The estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 477,000, while represents a supply of 8.3 months at the current sales rate. Powered by Commodity Insights |
US business activity continued to increase in April, but the rate of expansion slowed amid signs of weaker demand. The latest rise in output was the smallest in the year-to-date reflecting reduced rates of growth and falling orders in both the manufacturing and services sectors. April saw an overall reduction in new orders for the first time in six months. Companies responded by scaling back employment for the first time in almost four years, with business confidence also waning to the lowest since last November. Rates of inflation generally eased at the start of the second quarter, with both input costs and output prices rising less quickly at the composite level. That said, manufacturing input cost inflation hit a one-year high. The headline S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index dropped to 50.9 in April from 52.1 in March. Although continuing to signal an increase in business activity during the month, the latest data indicated only a slight expansion and one that was the softest since December. Nevertheless, output has now risen for 15 consecutive months. Slower increases in activity were recorded across both the manufacturing and services sectors, with rates of growth easing to three- and five-month lows respectively. The S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI posted 49.9 in April to signal broadly unchanged business conditions over the course of the month. The index was down from 51.9 in March and ended a three-month sequence of improving operating conditions. US manufacturers drew down their stocks of purchases for the second consecutive month in April, and to a solid degree that was the most marked since August last year. Firms made some efforts to limit the pace of depletion, however, raising their purchasing activity slightly following a fall in the previous survey period. Powered by Commodity Insights |
UK private sector activity expanded for the sixth consecutive month in April as a robust recovery in service sector output helped to offset a marginal decline in manufacturing production. Output growth was supported by a solid upturn in new order volumes and a modest acceleration in staff hiring, in each case driven by the service economy. April data indicated a steep increase in average cost burdens across the private sector, with the rate of inflation up sharply from March and the highest since May 2023. Stronger input price inflation was overwhelmingly linked to higher staff wages, particularly in the hospitality and leisure sector. Many survey respondents noted pressure on labour costs from a near 10% annual increase in the National Living Wage and an indirect impact on pay awards to other employees. At 54.0 in April, up from 52.8 in March, the headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index signalled the strongest rate of business activity expansion since May 2023. Service providers indicated a robust and accelerate rise in business activity during April, with the rate of growth the fastest for 11 months. Manufacturing production declined slightly in April, reversing the positive trend seen during the previous survey period. New business volumes increased across the private sector as a whole in April. There were also divergent trends for export sales, with service providers recording the sharpest upturn for 13 months while goods producers experienced another decline. UK private sector employment increased marginally in April. Input price inflation accelerated sharply in April, with overall cost pressures the strongest seen for 11 months. Business activity expectations for the next 12 months remained upbeat in April, with the degree of optimism higher than at any time in 2023. Powered by Commodity Insights |
The seasonally adjusted HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index, based on approximately 85% of usual survey responses and compiled by S&P Global, rose from 50.3 in March to 51.4 in April. The latest reading signals a second successive month of rising output after a continual decline over the nine months to February. The April expansion was the strongest since May of last year, though was only modest and well below the pace seen this time last year. Business activity in the euro area grew at the fastest rate for nearly a year in April, according to provisional PMI survey data. The improvement indicates that the region continues to pull out of the recent downturn, albeit growing only modestly amid divergent sector performances. Increasingly robust service sector growth was nevertheless accompanied by signs of a further moderation of the manufacturing downturn. Jobs growth also accelerated as business confidence remained elevated by recent standards. Although service sector output grew for a third successive month, with the rate of increase having gained momentum to register the fastest rise for 11 months, manufacturing output fell across the eurozone for a thirteenth straight month in April to act as a drag on the overall economy. The rate of decline in factory output eased, however, to the weakest for 12 months. Powered by Commodity Insights |
The German private sector returned to growth at the start of the second quarter, the latest HCOB ?flash? PMI survey compiled by S&P Global showed, driven by a solid rise in services business activity. Although manufacturing remained in contraction, the rate of decline in factory production eased and confidence amongst goods producers towards the outlook reached the highest for a year. On the price front, rates of both input cost and output price inflation ticked up, but they nevertheless registered broadly in line with their respective long-run averages. The headline HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index moved back above the 50.0 no-change threshold for the first time in ten months in April. At 50.5, up from 47.7 in March, it signaled a modest rate of expansion in private sector business activity. The upturn was led by a pick-up in services business activity, which after stabilising in March recorded its strongest growth since June 2023 (index at 53.3). The manufacturing output index meanwhile remained in sub-50 contraction territory (at 45.0), but back-to-back monthly rises saw it move close to January?s recent high and signal one of the slowest rates of decline in the past year. April?s flash survey showed contrasting trends in demand conditions at the sector level. Whereas services new business rose for the first time in ten months, manufacturers recorded a sharp and accelerated drop in inflows of new work. On the employment front, there was likewise a dichotomy between rising workforce numbers in the service sector and further manufacturing job cuts. The rate of hiring in the service sector even quickened slightly and was the second-fastest seen in the past ten months. Backlogs of work continued falling across the German private sector during April, in line with the trend every month since August 2022. Despite manufacturers reporting challenging demand conditions and maintaining a preference for lower workforce numbers, they signaled improved expectations towards future production. Powered by Commodity Insights |
The UK public sector net borrowing declined in the financial year ending March but it remained well above the official estimate, data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Tuesday. In the financial year ending March, provisionally estimated borrowing was GBP 120.7 billion, which was GBP 7.6 billion less than in the same period last year. However, it was GBP 6.6 billion more than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility. At the end of March, public sector net debt excluding public sector banks was estimated at 98.3 percent of GDP. This was 2.6 percentage points more than at the end of March 2023. In March alone, net borrowing declined GBP 4.7 billion from the last year to GBP 11.9 billion. The expected level was GBP 8.9 billion. Government receipts grew by GBP 6.6 billion to GBP 90.6 billion in March. Meanwhile, government expenditure declined by GBP 0.4 billion to GBP 102.5 billion. Powered by Commodity Insights |
The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Services Business Activity Index posted 54.6 in April, up from a final reading of 54.1 in March. This signaled the sharpest expansion in Japan's services activity since May 2023. Underpinning business activity growth were faster new business inflows, the quickest in ten months. April data also indicated sustained pressure on capacity, leading to another solid expansion of employment levels. On prices, input cost inflation rose for a second successive month. As a result, Japanese service providers shared their additional cost burdens with clients, contributing to the strongest rise in selling prices in ten years. The headline au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 48.2 in March to 49.9 in April to signal a near-stabilization of Japanese manufacturing business conditions. Both output and new orders fell at a slower rates in the latest survey period, with the decline in the latter easing to the softest in ten months. In turn, manufacturing sector confidence improved while employment growth accelerated. Finally, input cost inflation rose in April, leading average charges to rise at the fastest pace in nine months. Powered by Commodity Insights |
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