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| As on Apr 23, 2024 12:00 AM |
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| UK private sector activity expanded for the sixth consecutive month in April as a robust recovery in service sector output helped to offset a marginal decline in manufacturing production. Output growth was supported by a solid upturn in new order volumes and a modest acceleration in staff hiring, in each case driven by the service economy. April data indicated a steep increase in average cost burdens across the private sector, with the rate of inflation up sharply from March and the highest since May 2023. Stronger input price inflation was overwhelmingly linked to higher staff wages, particularly in the hospitality and leisure sector. Many survey respondents noted pressure on labour costs from a near 10% annual increase in the National Living Wage and an indirect impact on pay awards to other employees. At 54.0 in April, up from 52.8 in March, the headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index signalled the strongest rate of business activity expansion since May 2023. Service providers indicated a robust and accelerate rise in business activity during April, with the rate of growth the fastest for 11 months. Manufacturing production declined slightly in April, reversing the positive trend seen during the previous survey period. New business volumes increased across the private sector as a whole in April. There were also divergent trends for export sales, with service providers recording the sharpest upturn for 13 months while goods producers experienced another decline. UK private sector employment increased marginally in April. Input price inflation accelerated sharply in April, with overall cost pressures the strongest seen for 11 months. Business activity expectations for the next 12 months remained upbeat in April, with the degree of optimism higher than at any time in 2023. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The seasonally adjusted HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index, based on approximately 85% of usual survey responses and compiled by S&P Global, rose from 50.3 in March to 51.4 in April. The latest reading signals a second successive month of rising output after a continual decline over the nine months to February. The April expansion was the strongest since May of last year, though was only modest and well below the pace seen this time last year. Business activity in the euro area grew at the fastest rate for nearly a year in April, according to provisional PMI survey data. The improvement indicates that the region continues to pull out of the recent downturn, albeit growing only modestly amid divergent sector performances. Increasingly robust service sector growth was nevertheless accompanied by signs of a further moderation of the manufacturing downturn. Jobs growth also accelerated as business confidence remained elevated by recent standards. Although service sector output grew for a third successive month, with the rate of increase having gained momentum to register the fastest rise for 11 months, manufacturing output fell across the eurozone for a thirteenth straight month in April to act as a drag on the overall economy. The rate of decline in factory output eased, however, to the weakest for 12 months. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The German private sector returned to growth at the start of the second quarter, the latest HCOB ?flash? PMI survey compiled by S&P Global showed, driven by a solid rise in services business activity. Although manufacturing remained in contraction, the rate of decline in factory production eased and confidence amongst goods producers towards the outlook reached the highest for a year. On the price front, rates of both input cost and output price inflation ticked up, but they nevertheless registered broadly in line with their respective long-run averages. The headline HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index moved back above the 50.0 no-change threshold for the first time in ten months in April. At 50.5, up from 47.7 in March, it signaled a modest rate of expansion in private sector business activity. The upturn was led by a pick-up in services business activity, which after stabilising in March recorded its strongest growth since June 2023 (index at 53.3). The manufacturing output index meanwhile remained in sub-50 contraction territory (at 45.0), but back-to-back monthly rises saw it move close to January?s recent high and signal one of the slowest rates of decline in the past year. April?s flash survey showed contrasting trends in demand conditions at the sector level. Whereas services new business rose for the first time in ten months, manufacturers recorded a sharp and accelerated drop in inflows of new work. On the employment front, there was likewise a dichotomy between rising workforce numbers in the service sector and further manufacturing job cuts. The rate of hiring in the service sector even quickened slightly and was the second-fastest seen in the past ten months. Backlogs of work continued falling across the German private sector during April, in line with the trend every month since August 2022. Despite manufacturers reporting challenging demand conditions and maintaining a preference for lower workforce numbers, they signaled improved expectations towards future production. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The UK public sector net borrowing declined in the financial year ending March but it remained well above the official estimate, data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Tuesday. In the financial year ending March, provisionally estimated borrowing was GBP 120.7 billion, which was GBP 7.6 billion less than in the same period last year. However, it was GBP 6.6 billion more than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility. At the end of March, public sector net debt excluding public sector banks was estimated at 98.3 percent of GDP. This was 2.6 percentage points more than at the end of March 2023. In March alone, net borrowing declined GBP 4.7 billion from the last year to GBP 11.9 billion. The expected level was GBP 8.9 billion. Government receipts grew by GBP 6.6 billion to GBP 90.6 billion in March. Meanwhile, government expenditure declined by GBP 0.4 billion to GBP 102.5 billion. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Services Business Activity Index posted 54.6 in April, up from a final reading of 54.1 in March. This signaled the sharpest expansion in Japan's services activity since May 2023. Underpinning business activity growth were faster new business inflows, the quickest in ten months. April data also indicated sustained pressure on capacity, leading to another solid expansion of employment levels. On prices, input cost inflation rose for a second successive month. As a result, Japanese service providers shared their additional cost burdens with clients, contributing to the strongest rise in selling prices in ten years. The headline au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 48.2 in March to 49.9 in April to signal a near-stabilization of Japanese manufacturing business conditions. Both output and new orders fell at a slower rates in the latest survey period, with the decline in the latter easing to the softest in ten months. In turn, manufacturing sector confidence improved while employment growth accelerated. Finally, input cost inflation rose in April, leading average charges to rise at the fastest pace in nine months. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Economic growth across India's private sector continued to strengthen in April. According to the HSBC Flash India PMI data, positive demand trends fueled new business intakes and output. In both cases, rates of expansion were the fastest in close to 14 years. The manufacturing industry led the latest upturn, as was the case in March, although softening growth at goods producers compared with accelerations at service providers. Sustained increases in new orders added pressure on the capacity of manufacturing firms and their services counterparts, which in turn underpinned recruitment. Jobs growth was notably stronger among the former. The survey's price measures showed slower rates of inflation for both aggregate input costs and output charges. Rising from 61.8 in March to 62.2 in April, the headline HSBC Flash India Composite PMI Output Index ? a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of India's manufacturing and service sectors ? indicated the fastest rate of increase in aggregate business activity since mid-2010. Survey participants overwhelmingly attributed the expansion to buoyant demand from domestic and external clients. Growth in India remained broad-based across the manufacturing and service sectors. The former saw the sharper rate of increase, albeit one that was softer than in March. In the service economy, business activity rose to the greatest extent in three months. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Australia?s private sector activity expansion accelerated at the start of the second quarter, supported primarily by service sector growth. Higher new business inflows underpinned rises in business activity and employment, while firms remained optimistic regarding future output. On prices, the rate at which output prices rose eased in April despite higher input cost inflation. The Judo Bank Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index posted 53.6 in April, up from 53.3 in March. The latest reading signaled that private sector activity expanded for a third straight month and at the quickest pace since April 2022. While business activity growth was again limited to the service sector, the rate at which manufacturing output fell slowed to the least pronounced in eight months and was only marginal. This was supported by a slower reduction in goods new orders, while quicker inflows of services new business led to overall new orders rising at the fastest pace in nearly two years. The Judo Bank Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index posted 54.2 in April, down from 54.4 in March. This marked a third successive monthly expansion, at a slower but still solid pace. The Judo Bank Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.9 in April, up from 47.3 in March. This indicated that manufacturing sector conditions near-stabilized at the start of the second quarter. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The People's Bank of China (PBoC) left key lending rates unchanged in April, including the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.45% and the 5-year rate at 3.95%. This decision, maintaining record lows, reflects Beijing's efforts to bolster the economy post-Q1 growth and amidst yuan depreciation pressure, aggravated by challenges in the property sector, deflation risks, and fragile trade performance Powered by Commodity Insights |
| China's natural gas output hit a record high in the first quarter of 2024, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. The country produced 63.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas in the January-March period, up 5.2 percent from a year earlier. China's natural gas imports posted fast growth during this period, NBS data also revealed. A total of 32.79 million tonnes of natural gas was imported in the first three months of the year, up 22.8 percent year on year, according to the bureau. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| China's industrial capacity utilization rate came in at 73.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, down 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Among three major industry classifications, the mining sector's utilization rate came in at 75 percent and the rate for the manufacturing sector stood at 73.8 percent. The utilization rate of the sector responsible for the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water stood at 71.2 percent, according to the data. In terms of major industries, coal mining and beneficiation, food manufacturing, and textiles reported utilization rates of 71.6 percent, 69.1 percent and 78 percent, respectively. Other sectors including general equipment manufacturing, automotive manufacturing, as well as computers, information and other electronic equipment recorded rates of 78.2 percent, 64.9 percent, and 74.7 percent, respectively, according to the data. Industrial capacity utilization refers to the ratio of actual output to production capacity. The government's statistical authorities release utilization rate data based on surveys covering around 110,000 enterprises across the country. The data is released on a quarterly basis. Powered by Commodity Insights |
International Monetary Fund or IMF stated in a latest update that Asia and Pacific economic growth surprised on the upside in the second half of 2023 as robust domestic demand fueled activity, especially in emerging Asian economies. Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and most notably India, recorded sizable positive growth surprises, according to IMF's press briefing on the Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific. Growth for the region reached 5 percent in 2023, much stronger than a growth of 3.9 percent in 2022, and this represents a 0.4 percentage points higher than what we had projected in the October 2023 Regional Economic Outlook, and the momentum carries over into 2024. We now project the region to grow by 4.5 percent in 2024 and upward revision of 0.3 percentage points relative to October. With this, Asia would contribute about 60 percent of global growth. The region is projected to grow by 4.3 percent in 2025. IMF stated that In China and India, it expects investment to contribute disproportionately to growth, much of it public, especially in India. In emerging Asia, outside China and India, robust private consumption will remain the main growth engine. In some advanced economies, such as Korea, we expect a positive impulse from exports, driven in part by strong global demand for high end semiconductors. Domestic demand would strengthen only gradually. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Growth in Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity has seen acceleration in the month of April, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia revealed in a report released on Thursday. The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity jumped to 15.5 in April from 3.2 in March, with a positive reading indicating growth. The diffusion index for current general activity reached its highest level since hitting 16.9 in April 2022. The dip by the headline index came as the new orders index advanced to 12.2 in April from 5.4 in March, while the shipments index shot up to 19.1 in April from 11.4 in March. Meanwhile, the number of employees? index edged down to a negative 10.7 in April from a negative 9.6 in March, reflecting a continued decrease in jobs. The report also said the prices paid index soared to 23.0 in April from 3.7 in March, while the prices received index inched up to 5.5 in April from 4.6 in March. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| UK Retail sales volumes (quantity bought) were estimated to be flat (0.0%) in March 2024, following an increase of 0.1% in February 2024 (revised from 0.0%), according to the Office for National Statistics. Within retail, sales were mixed, with automotive fuel and non-food stores sales volumes rising by 3.2% and 0.5%, respectively. This was offset by falls in food stores and non-store retailers of 0.7% and 1.5%. Looking at the quarter, sales volumes increased by 1.9% in the three months to March 2024 when compared with the previous three months. This was following low sales volumes over the Christmas period for retailers. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The producer prices of industrial products were 2.9% lower in March 2024 than in March 2023. In February, the year-on-year change rate was -4.1%. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that producer prices in March 2024 were up 0.2% on February 2024. In March 2024, lower energy prices continued to be the main reason for the year-on-year decline in producer prices. Intermediate goods were also less expensive than in March 2023, whereas higher prices had to be paid for consumer and capital goods. Energy prices in March 2024 were down 7.0% from March 2023. Compared with February 2024, energy prices remained unchanged. Intermediate goods prices were 3.7% lower in March 2024 than a year earlier. Compared with the previous month, they increased slightly by 0.1%. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The dollar index moved up towards 106.3 in early trades friday, nearing its highest levels in over five months as investors are backing off from expecting Federal Reserve rate cuts, considering no reductions this year. The dollar hit fresh multi-month highs against major currencies but retreated from 34-year highs versus the yen after BOJ's Ueda hinted at raising rates again. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari called for patience on rate reductions, suggesting the first move might not happen until 2025. New York Fed President John Williams said another rate hike isn't his base case but is still possible due to inflation risks. US economic data, including jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, show a resilient economy. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits remained flat in the week ended April 13th, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday. The report said initial jobless claims came in at 212,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving average also came in unchanged from the previous week's revised average at 214,500. Meanwhile, the report said continuing claims, a reading on the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment assistance, crept up by 2,000 to 1.812 million in the week ended April 6th. The four-week moving average of continuing claims also rose to 1,805,250, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average of 1,801,000. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| A report released by the National Association of Realtors on Thursday showed a sharp pullback by existing home sales in the U.S. in the month March. NAR said existing home sales plunged by 4.3 percent to an annual rate of 4.19 million in March after surging by 9.5 percent to a rate of 4.38 million in February. The report also said housing inventory at the end of March totaled 1.11 million units, up 4.7 percent from 1.06 million units in February and up 14.4 percent from 970,000 units a year ago. The unsold inventory represents 3.2 months of supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.9 months in February and 2.7 months in March 2023. NAR also said the median existing home price was $393,500 in March, an increase of 4.8 percent compared to $375,300 in the same month a year ago. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The Conference Board released a report on Thursday showing an unexpected pullback by its index of leading U.S. economic indicators in the month of March. The report said the leading economic index fell by 0.3 percent in March after rising by 0.2 percent in February. The modest advance in February marked the first increase by the leading index in two years. The report also said the coincident economic index rose by 0.3 percent in March after inching up by 0.1 percent in February. Meanwhile, the Conference Board said the lagging economic index came in unchanged in March after rising by 0.3 percent in February. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Euro area construction output grew for a third straight month in February and at a stronger pace, mainly led by civil engineering works and rebound in building construction, preliminary data from the statistical office Eurostat showed Thursday. Construction output rose a calendar and seasonally adjusted 1.8 percent month-on-month following a downwardly revised 0.2 percent gain in January. Building construction grew 3.5 percent, entirely reversing the 3.1 percent slump at the start of the year. Civil engineering work increased 4.5 percent following a 1.2 percent gain in the previous month. This was the second month of growth. Specialized construction work also grew for a second straight month, up 1.7 percent. In the EU, construction output increased 1.8 percent after a 1.2 percent fall in the previous month. Among EU member states, the biggest gains in construction output were logged in Austria, Germany and Slovenia, while the worst declines were seen in Hungary, France and Sweden. On a year-on-year basis, output decreased 0.4 percent in February after a 0.3 percent fall in January, which was revised from a 0.8 percent gain reported earlier. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| New car sales in the EU declined for the first time in three months in March amid weaker demand among four major markets, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, or ACEA, showed Thursday. New car registrations fell 5.2 percent year-over-year to 1.0 million units in March, following a 10.1 percent surge in February. The timing of the Easter holidays negatively impacted last month's sales across most EU markets, the ACEA said. German market showed the worst plunge of 6.2 percent, followed by Spain with a 4.7 percent tumble. In Italy too, the car sales fell 3.7 percent over the year, and the French car market saw 1.5 percent decline. Powered by Commodity Insights |
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