|
Prev
Next
|
|
| As on Nov 30, 2023 12:00 AM |
Your results on : Currency News |
|
|
| According to a latest update from the Oraganization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), global trade growth has been surprisingly weak over the past year. This is worrying given the importance of trade for productivity and development. Merchandise trade volumes fell by 1.5% in the first half of the year, whilst services trade volumes are estimated to have risen by 6.4%, as the ongoing normalisation of travel in Asia helped to boost tourism. Weak trade is not an entirely new development. Since the recovery from the pandemic, trade has fallen relative to GDP, particularly merchandise trade. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The value of retail sales in Japan was up 4.2 percent on year in October, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Thursday - coming in at 13.648 trillion yen. On a monthly basis, retail sales slumped 1.6 percent after adding 0.4 percent in the previous month. Commercial sales shed 1.0 percent on month and rose 1.5 percent to 50.222 trillion yen, while wholesale sales lost 1.2 percent on month and gained 0.6 percent on year to 36.574 trillion yen. Large retailer sales fell 1.6 percent on month and gained 4.0 percent on year. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Industrial production in Japan was up a seasonally adjusted 1.0 percent on month in October, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Thursday - exceeding forecasts for an increase of 0.8 percent and up from 0.5 percent in September. On a yearly basis, industrial production rose 0.9 percent after sinking 4.4 percent in the previous month. Shipments were up 0.2 percent on month and 1.0 percent on year, while inventories added 0.8 percent on month and 1.2 percent on year. The inventory ratio rose 0.1 percent on month and 4.6 percent on year. Upon the release of the data, the METI maintained its assessment of industrial production, saying that it continues to fluctuate indecisively. According to the METI's forecast for industrial production, output is seen lower by 0.3 percent on month in November and higher by 3.2 percent in December. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| China's factory activity experienced a second consecutive month of contraction in November, raising concerns about the trajectory of the world's second-largest economy. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index unexpectedly dipped to 49.4 from 49.5 in October, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. Additionally, non-manufacturing activity hit a new low for the year, with the official non-manufacturing managers' index slipping to 50.2 in November from 50.6 in October. This signals ongoing economic challenges, prompting discussions about the potential need for more robust policy support to navigate through uncertainties. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The U.S. Census Bureau announced the wholesale inventories, and retail inventories advance statistics for October 2023. U.S. wholesale inventories for October were estimated at an end-of-month level of $899.4 billion, down 0.2 percent from September 2023, and were down 2.0 percent from October 2022. The August 2023 to September 2023 percentage change was revised from up 0.2 percent to up 0.1 percent. Meanwhile, retail inventories for October were estimated at an end-of-month level of $796.6 billion, virtually unchanged from September 2023, and were up 5.4 percent from October 2022. The August 2023 to September 2023 percentage change was revised from up 0.9 percent to up 0.4 percent. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The U.S. Census Bureau announced the international trade advance statistics for October 2023. The U.S. international trade deficit was $89.8 billion in October, up $3.0 billion from $86.8 billion in September. Exports of goods for October were $170.8 billion, $3.0 billion less than September exports. Imports of goods for October were $260.7 billion, virtually unchanged from September imports. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Revised data released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed the U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the third quarter of 2023. The Commerce Department said the jump by real gross domestic product in the third quarter was upwardly revised to 5.2 percent from the previously reported 4.9 percent. The faster than previously estimated growth reflected upward revisions to non-residential fixed investment and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. The upwardly revised surge in GDP in the third quarter reflects a significant acceleration compared to the 2.1 jump in the second quarter. The Commerce Department said the faster growth primarily reflected accelerations in consumer spending and private inventory investment and an upturn in exports that were partly offset by a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Meanwhile, the report said the increase in consumer prices in the third quarter was downwardly revised to 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent. The jump in core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, was also downwardly revised to 2.3 percent from 2.4 percent. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Global growth is set to remain modest, with the impact of the necessary monetary policy tightening, weak trade and lower business and consumer confidence being increasingly felt, according to the OECD?s latest Economic Outlook. The Outlook projects global GDP growth of 2.9% in 2023, followed by a mild slowdown to 2.7% in 2024 and a slight improvement to 3.0% in 2025. Asia is expected to continue to account for the bulk of global growth in 2024-25, as it has in 2023. Consumer price inflation is expected to continue to ease gradually back towards central bank targets in most economies by 2025, as cost pressures moderate. Consumer price inflation in OECD countries is expected to decline from 7.0% in 2023 to 5.2% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025. GDP growth in the United States is projected at 2.4% in 2023, before slowing to 1.5% in 2024, and then picking up slightly to 1.7% in 2025 as monetary policy is expected to ease. In the euro area, which had been relatively hard hit by Russia?s war of aggression against Ukraine and the energy price shock, GDP growth is projected at 0.6% in 2023, before rising to 0.9% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. China is expected to grow at a 5.2% rate this year, before growth drops to 4.7% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025 on the back of ongoing stresses in the real estate sector and continued high household saving rates. The Outlook highlights a range of risks. Geopolitical tensions remain a key source of uncertainty and have risen further as a result of the evolving conflict following Hamas? terrorist attacks on Israel. Amid heightened geopolitical tensions and a longer-term decline in the trade intensity of growth, the anticipated cyclical pick-up in trade growth could fail to materialise. On the upside, stronger consumer spending could push up growth if households make greater use of the savings accumulated since the COVID-19 pandemic, though this could also increase the persistence of inflation. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The UK mortgage approvals surged in October, official data showed on Wednesday, despite elevated borrowing costs. According to the Bank of England?s latest Money and Credit report, gross mortgage lending fell to ?16.2bn from ?18.1bn in September. However, net mortgage approvals jumped to 47,400 from 43,700 a month previously. The figure still remains well below the 2015-2019 average of 66,400. Net approvals for remortgaging also gained, to 23,700 in October from 20,600 a month earlier. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The inflation rate in Germany, measured as the year-on-year change in the consumer price index (CPI), stood at +3.8% in October 2023, according to official data. In September 2023, the inflation rate was +4.5%. This means that the rate of inflation has continued to slow and reached the lowest level since August 2021 (also +3.8%). Compared to the medium-term and long-term figures, the inflation rate remains high, however. In particular, consumers are still feeling the higher food and energy prices, which have risen during the extended period of war and crisis, says Ruth Brand, President of the Federal Statistical Office. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that consumer prices in October 2023 remained unchanged from September 2023. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Import prices in Germany were 13.0% lower in October 2023 compared with October 2022. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the year-on-year change rate was -14.3% in September 2023 and -16.4% in August 2023. The large decreases are still primarily due to a base effect originating from the high price increases in 2022 as a result of the war in Ukraine. Compared with September 2023, import prices were up 0.3% in October 2023. Export prices in October 2023 were down 2.4% compared with October 2022. Compared with the previous month, export prices fell slightly (-0.1%). Energy imports in October 2023 cost 43.5% less than in October 2022 but were 1.8% more expensive than in September 2023. The index of export prices in October 2023 was 2.4% lower than in October 2022. The year-on-year rate of change was -4.1% in September 2023, and -5.1% in August 2023. Compared with September 2023, export prices fell slightly by 0.1% in October 2023. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The German import prices were 13.0% lower in October 2023 compared with October 2022. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the year-on-year change rate was -14.3% in September 2023 and -16.4% in August 2023. The large decreases are still primarily due to a base effect originating from the high price increases in 2022 as a result of the war in Ukraine. Compared with September 2023, import prices were up 0.3% in October 2023. Export prices in October 2023 were down 2.4% compared with October 2022. Compared with the previous month, export prices fell slightly (-0.1%). Year-on-year import prices decreased due to lower energy prices, but month-on-month prices rose Energy imports in October 2023 cost 43.5% less than in October 2022 but were 1.8% more expensive than in September 2023. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The value of total construction work done in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 13 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2023, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - coming in at A$64.768 billion. Individually, work for building was up 0.2 percent on quarter to A$34.300 billion, while residential was up 1.3 percent at A$20.675 billion, non-residential fell 1.6 percent to A$13.625 billion and engineering rose 2.6 percent to A$30.468 billion. On a yearly basis, the value of overall construction work was up 8.5 percent. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The Monetary Policy Committee of New Zealand's central bank is keeping interest rates at a restrictive level, citing concerns about ongoing inflationary pressures. Despite a decline in consumer price inflation and easing demand growth, the committee remains cautious, emphasizing the need for a sustained period of restrictive interest rates to bring inflation back into the 1 to 3 percent target range. The impact of strong population growth on both demand and labor supply is noted, with a recognition that if inflationary pressures escalate, further increases in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) may be necessary. The committee underscores its commitment to supporting maximum sustainable employment while addressing the risk of inflation remaining above target. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Australia's monthly inflation gauge revealed a slowdown in October, ending two consecutive months of acceleration. According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the consumer price indicator rose 4.9% from a year earlier. This development supports the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to potentially pause interest rate hikes in the upcoming week. Despite the recent rate increase to a 12-year high of 4.35%, the moderation in inflation could influence the RBA's monetary policy decisions as it assesses the resilience of the economy and labor market. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Reflecting an improvement in consumer expectations, the Conference Board released a report on Tuesday showing a rebound in U.S. consumer confidence in the month of November. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose to 102.0 in November from a downwardly revised 99.1 in October. The rebound by the headline index came as the expectations index jumped to 77.8 in November from a downwardly revised 72.7 in October. Despite the monthly increase, the expectations index remained below 80 for a third consecutive month, which historically signals a recession within the next year. The report also said the present situation index edged down to 138.2 in November from 138.6 in October, as less optimistic views on current job availability outweighed slightly improved views on the state of business conditions. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Eurozone money supply continued to fall and bank lending remained weak in October amid tight monetary policy, data published by the European Central Bank showed Tuesday. The monetary aggregate M3 declined 1.0 percent on a yearly basis in October after a 1.2 percent fall in September. This was the fourth consecutive fall. In three months to October, the annual growth rate of M3 averaged -1.2 percent. The narrow measure M1 posted an annual decline of 10.0 percent, slightly faster than the 9.9 percent decrease in the previous month. Further, data showed that credit to residents dropped 0.5 percent and that to general government was down 2.6 percent. By contrast, the annual growth rate of credit to the private sector doubled to 0.4 percent from 0.2 percent a month ago. Likewise, adjusted loans to the private sector registered an annual growth of 0.4 percent, following a 0.2 percent rise in September. Among the borrowing sectors, the annual growth rate of adjusted loans to households eased to 0.6 percent from 0.8 percent a month ago. At the same time, adjusted loans to non-financial corporations fell 0.3 percent in October, in contrast to the 0.2 percent rise in September. This was the first decline since July 2015. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Germany?s Gfk consumer sentiment index for December showed a marginal improvement, rising from -28.3 to -27.8, slightly better than expected -28.5. This slight uptick indicates a subtle shift in consumer sentiment as the year ends. In November, economic expectations had a minor increase from -2.4 to -2.3. However, income expectations dropped from -15.3 to -16.7. There was a slight rise in willingness to buy, from -16.3 to -15.0, while willingness to save decreased from 8.5 to 5.3. This uncertainty is particularly evident in the willingness to save. A recent in-depth analysis conducted by NIM underlines this: Consumers were specifically asked why they think it is the right moment to save. In an open survey, approximately one-third of participants stated that the current (geo-) political and economic situation makes them very uncertain. As a result, they are concerned and deem it best to save their money. In addition to the current conflicts such as the war in Ukraine and the Middle East, it is primarily the high inflation in Germany driving the willingness to save. This concern was cited by more than a third of those surveyed. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| UK shop price inflation moderated in November as retailers lowered prices ahead of Christmas, the British Retail Consortium said Tuesday. The shop price index rose 4.3 percent on a yearly basis in November, slower than the 5.2 percent increase in October. This was the weakest since June 2022 and marked the sixth consecutive slowdown in growth. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| South Korea's consumer sentiment weakened in November to the lowest level in seven months as households' current living conditions worsened, survey results from the Bank of Korea showed on Tuesday. The consumer confidence index fell to 97.2 in November from 98.1 in October. This was the lowest reading since April 2022, when it was 95.1. The sub-index for households' assessment of current living standards dropped to 87 from 88, while the measure for prospective living standards remained stable at 90.0. Similarly, the index measuring consumers' prospective household income held steady at 88.0. South Koreans were slightly less pessimistic about their job prospects, and the relevant index dropped to 77 from 78. Their interest rate expectations decreased in November, with the measure falling to 119 from 128. The expected inflation rate for the upcoming year was 3.4 percent, which was unchanged from October. Meanwhile, households' expectations for domestic economic conditions in the future improved from 70 to 72. Powered by Commodity Insights |
|
|