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| As on Dec 01, 2023 12:00 AM |
Your results on : Currency News |
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| November saw the UK manufacturing sector potentially turning a corner. Although production contracted for the ninth consecutive month, the rate of decline eased sharply to its second-weakest during that sequence. The downturn in new orders, although still solid, also slowed during the month. Manufacturers nonetheless remained on a cautious footing, with ongoing market uncertainty and the need to control costs leading to job losses, stock depletion and lower purchasing. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers? Index (PMI) posted 47.2 in November, up from 44.8 in October, rising for the third successive month to its highest level since April. The PMI has still posted below the neutral 50.0 mark in each of the past 16 months. November saw all five of the PMI components (new orders, output, employment, suppliers' delivery times and stocks of purchases) remain at levels consistent with a deterioration in operating conditions, albeit to lesser extents than in the prior survey month. The downturn in production was led by manufacturers focused towards business-to-business and capital spending. Intermediate goods output decreased at the sharpest pace in almost a year while investment goods production contracted for the seventh month in a row (but to the weakest extent during that sequence). Manufacturers linked weaker inflows of new business to a combination of client destocking, lost customers, market uncertainty, budget constraints and lower inflows of new work from both the public and private sectors. Business confidence edged higher in November, reflecting expectations that new product launches, economic recovery and a stabilization of market conditions would support future output growth. Input buying activity was reduced for the seventeenth month in a row, in part reflecting intentional destocking. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The eurozone manufacturing sector remained mired in a downturn during November, but contractions in output, new orders, purchasing activity and inventories slowed, while business confidence edged up to a three-month high. That said, factory job losses across the single currency union were extended into a sixth month, with the decrease in employment accelerating to its sharpest since August 2020. Meanwhile, another marked fall in input costs enabled eurozone manufacturers to discount their selling prices for the seventh time in as many months. Rates of deflation in both cases cooled, however. The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, posted below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth and contraction for a seventeenth month in a row during November, signalling a further worsening of conditions within the goods-producing sector. However, while the latest reading of 44.2 pointed to another strong deterioration, this was up from 43.1 in October and the highest since May. Factory production across the euro area continued to decrease during November. Eurozone manufacturers were less aggressive with their destocking efforts, November survey data showed, with pre- and postproduction inventory levels falling at weaker rates. Backlogs of work declined in November, extending the current period of depletion in outstanding business to a year-and-a-half. Meanwhile, suppliers? delivery times shortened for the tenth month in succession during November. Lastly, the latest survey data signalled a further sharp reduction in costs faced by eurozone factories. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| November's HCOB PMI survey conducted by S&P Global provided further signs that the downturn in Germany's manufacturing sector was easing, with businesses reporting the slowest declines in both output and new orders for six months. Expectations towards future activity meanwhile improved but remained pessimistic. The main negative development in November was an accelerated drop in factory employment. Falling demand across the manufacturing sector was once again reflected in downward pressure on prices as competition for new work fueled further discounting. The rate of decline in average factory gate charges was the weakest for five months, however. The HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI ? which is a gauge of overall business conditions based on measures of new orders, output, employment, supplier delivery times and stocks of purchases ? registered 42.6 in November. This latest reading was still firmly below the 50.0 no-change threshold, although it was up from October's 40.8 and marked a fourth straight monthly rise in the index. The result was largely driven by slower declines in both production and new orders. New orders continued to fall more quickly than output during November, which in turn led to the continued depletion of backlogs of work. Employment was one of the few areas where the latest data showed a faster rate of decline, with factory workforce numbers dropping to the greatest extent since October 2020. Looking ahead, German manufacturers remained downbeat about prospects for output over the next 12 months. That said, expectations recovered further from September's recent low to reach the highest since May. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| According to the Nationwide house price index data, UK house prices rose 0.2% on month on month in November. This was the third successive monthly increase and resulted in an improvement in the annual rate of house price growth from -3.3% in October, to -2.0%. The house prices are down 2% compared with a year ago. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The manufacturing sector in Australia continued to contract in November, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from Judo Bank revealed on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 47.7. That's down from 48.2 in October and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Order book volumes fell in the Australian manufacturing sector for the twelfth successive month. Moreover, the pace of decline accelerated from October and was the quickest since May 2020. Foreign demand likewise deteriorated as new orders from abroad fell in November. According to survey respondents, soft domestic and global economic conditions, affected by high interest rates, weighed on demand in November. As a result of lower new orders, manufacturing production levels declined in November for the twelfth successive month. That said, the pace of contraction eased from October and was moderate overall. Firms worked through their existing orders to support production, leading to backlogged work falling at one of the fastest rates in the survey history. A lack of pressure on capacity meanwhile resulted in employment levels falling, albeit marginally, for the first time in just over three years. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The unemployment rate in Japan came in a seasonally adjusted 2.5 percent in October, the Ministry of Communications and Internal Affairs said on Friday. The participation rate was 63.1 percent, shy of expectations for 62.2 percent and down from 62.3 percent in the previous month. The job-to-applicant ratio was 1.30, above forecasts for 1.29, which would have been unchanged from October. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The Indian manufacturing industry continued to perform well in November. After slowing in October, growth of output gathered pace as strengthening client demand and more favorable input supply boosted production volumes. Inflationary pressures retreated, with purchase costs rising at the weakest pace since the current sequence of increases began in August 2020. Charges rose modestly, as the vast majority of firms opted to leave their fees unchanged since October. Picking up from October's eight-month low of 55.5 to 56.0 in November, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers? Index (PMI) indicated a stronger improvement in operating conditions. The reading was below the average for the second fiscal quarter (57.9), but outpaced the series trend. A key feature of the latest results was a substantial easing of price pressures. Rising costs translated into increased selling prices, albeit one that was the weakest in seven months. November data showed another substantial increase in overall levels of new work received by Indian goods producers. The trend for new export business showed signs of resilience, despite weakening in November. With total new sales rising, demand conditions remaining positive and input supply relatively improving, Indian manufacturers scaled up production volumes. Manufacturing employment in India increased for the eighth successive month heading towards the end of the 2023 calendar year. Purchasing activity and stocks of inputs rose during November, in many cases owing to buoyant demand conditions. The outlook for India's manufacturing sector remained favourable in November, with firms seeing opportunities in the form of demand strength, marketing initiatives and new clients making enquiries about a wide range of products. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to contract in November, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 48.3. That's down from 48.7 in October and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Contributing to the sub-50.0 PMI reading was a further contraction in output levels, and one that was the strongest seen in nine months. The downturn reportedly reflected production adjustments in response to weaker demand and a lack of new product launches. There was also a sustained contraction in new orders midway through the final quarter of 2023. The rate of decline sharpened from October amid cooling demand in both domestic and international markets. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Chinese manufacturing firms signalled a fresh improvement in the health of the sector during November, according to the latest PMI data. A sustained rise in new orders helped to lift factory production for the third time in the past four months, albeit marginally. New export business fell slightly, however, with firms often linking this to subdued global demand conditions. At the same time, manufacturers registered only a marginal drop in staffing levels and a slight rise in purchasing activity, as confidence around the year-ahead ticked up. On the inflation front, average input costs rose at a modest pace that remained much slower than the series average, while selling prices were broadly unchanged. The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers? Index (PMI) increased from 49.5 in October to a three-month high of 50.7 in November, to signal a renewed improvement in manufacturing conditions. Though only marginal, it marked the third time in the past four months that the health of the sector has strengthened. Supporting the above 50.0 PMI figure was a sustained and quicker rise in overall new business received by Chinese goods producers in November. The further increase in total new orders prompted firms to expand their production schedules after a slight reduction in October. In line with the trend seen for output, purchasing activity also returned to expansion in November. Supply chain performance meanwhile improved slightly for the second month in a row. The weaker reduction in staffing levels coincided with an improvement in business confidence midway through the final quarter of the year. Prices data indicated that cost pressures remained subdued in November, with average input costs rising at a modest pace that was slower than in October. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| A report released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed a modest increase in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended November 25th. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims inched up to 218,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level of 211,000. Meanwhile, the report said the less volatile four-week moving average edged down to 220,000, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average of 220,500. The Commerce Department said continuing claims, a reading on the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment assistance rose by 86,000 to 1.927 million in the week ended November 18th. With the increase, continuing claims reached the highest level since hitting 1.964 million in the week ended November 27, 2021. The four-week moving average of continuing claims also reached a nearly two-year high of 1,865,750, an increase of 28,750 from the previous week's revised average of 1,837,000. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| A report released by MNI Indicators on Thursday showed Chicago-area business activity unexpectedly expanded for the first time in over a year in the month of November. MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer surged to 55.8 in November from 44.0 in October, with a reading above 50 indicating growth. The Chicago business barometer saw its biggest monthly increase since September of 2020, returning to expansionary territory for the first time since August 2022. MNI Indicators said the new orders index spiked by 12.5 points, driven by an increase in demand by respondents. The production index also surged by 15.9 points, as the number of respondents reporting 'higher' production was the greatest since May 2021. The inventories and supplier deliveries indexes also increased to levels above 50, while the employment index moved further above 50, reaching the highest level since July 2022. The report also said the prices paid index edged down by 0.2 points to 59.9, below levels seen for the majority of the last three calendar years. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Pending home sales in the U.S. slumped to their lowest level in over twenty years in the month of October, the National Association of Realtors revealed in a report released on Thursday. NAR said its pending home sales index tumbled by 1.5 percent to 71.4 in October after jumping by 1.0 percent to a revised 72.5 in September. With the decrease, the pending home sales index fell to its lowest level since the index was originated in 2001. A pending home sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale. Pending home sales in the West led the way lower, plummeting by 6.0 percent, while pending home sales in the South slumped by 1.9 percent and pending home sales in the Midwest dipped by 0.4 percent. Meanwhile, the report said pending home sales in the Northeast jumped by 2.7 percent. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Consumer price growth in the U.S. slowed in the month of October, according to closely watched inflation readings released by the Commerce Department on Thursday. The report said the annual rate of consumer price growth decelerated to 3.0 percent in October from 3.4 percent in September. Core consumer price growth also slowed to 3.5 percent in October from 3.7 percent in September. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were unchanged in October after climbing by 0.4 percent in September, while core consumer prices crept up by 0.2 percent after rising by 0.3 percent in the previous month. The report said personal income edged up by 0.2 percent in October after climbing by 0.4 percent in September. Disposable personal income, or personal income less personal current taxes, rose by 0.3 percent in October after increasing by 0.4 percent in September. Personal spending also increased in line with estimates, rising by 0.2 percent in October following a 0.7 percent advance in September. Excluding price changes, personal spending still edged up by 0.2 percent in October after rising by 0.3 percent in the previous month. The report also said personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income inched up to 3.8 percent in October from 3.7 percent in September. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| In October 2023, the euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 6.5%, stable compared with September 2023 and down from 6.6% in October 2022. The EU unemployment rate was 6.0% in October 2023, stable compared with September 2023 and down from 6.1% in October 2022. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Eurostat estimates that 13.171 million persons in the EU, of whom 11.134 million in the euro area, were unemployed in October 2023. Compared with September 2023, unemployment increased by 71 thousand in the EU and by 48 thousand in the euro area. Compared with October 2022, unemployment increased by 27 thousand in the EU and decreased by 28 thousand in the euro area. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.4% in November 2023, down from 2.9% in October according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in November (6.9%, compared with 7.4% in October), followed by services (4.0%, compared with 4.6% in October), non-energy industrial goods (2.9%, compared with 3.5% in October) and energy (-11.5%, compared with -11.2% in October). Powered by Commodity Insights |
| According to preliminary results from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), retail companies in Germany had 1.1% more real (price-adjusted) and nominal (not price-adjusted) sales in October 2023 than in September 2023. In comparison to October 2022, the retail sector recorded a slight real sales decline of 0.1% and a nominal sales increase of 2.6%. The difference between the nominal and real results reflects the increased retail price level. Food retail sales fell by 1.3% in real terms and by 1.2% in nominal terms in October 2023 compared to the previous month. Compared to the low in December 2022, calendar and seasonally adjusted real sales in food retail were 2.4% higher. Compared to October 2022, real sales fell by 1.6%, while nominal sales increased by 4.0%. Real non-food retail sales increased by 1.4% month-on-month in October 2023 and by 0.6% year-on-year. In the internet and mail order trade, real sales in October 2023 also recorded an increase of 2.9% compared to the previous month, meaning that sales were 1.2% below the level of the same month of the previous year, October 2022. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Roughly 46.1 million persons resident in Germany were in employment in October 2023. According to provisional calculations of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the seasonally adjusted number of persons in employment rose slightly by 14,000 (0.0%) on the previous month. In September 2023, the number of persons in employment increased by 3,000 compared with the previous month. Overall, the level of seasonally adjusted employment has only risen slightly, by 10,000 persons (0.0%), since June 2023. Compared with October 2022, the number of persons in employment in October 2023 was up by 0.6%, or 265,000. The year-on-year rate of change was also +0.6% (+291,000) in September 2023. At the beginning of the year it was +1.0% (+432,000 persons). Compared with the previous year, the long-term upward trend on the labour market therefore continued at a slower pace. According to results of the labour force survey, 1.40 million people were unemployed in October 2023. This represented an increase of 66,000, or 4.9%, compared with October 2022. The unemployment rate rose to 3.1% (October 2022: 3.0%). Adjusted for seasonal and irregular effects, the number of unemployed stood at 1.36 million in October 2023, which was an increase of 7,000 on the previous month. Compared with the previous month, the adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.1%. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| Japan's consumer sentiment improved for the second straight month in November to the highest level in three months, data from the Cabinet Office showed on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index rose to 36.1 in November from 35.7 in October. All sub-indices registered increases in November, except income growth, the survey said. The indicator measuring overall livelihood climbed by 0.7 points to 34.1, and that for employment rose by 0.6 points to 41.3. The index reflecting households' willingness to buy durable consumer goods also strengthened to 30.1 from 29.4, while the index for income growth fell slightly by 0.3 points to 38.8. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| According to a latest update from the Oraganization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), global trade growth has been surprisingly weak over the past year. This is worrying given the importance of trade for productivity and development. Merchandise trade volumes fell by 1.5% in the first half of the year, whilst services trade volumes are estimated to have risen by 6.4%, as the ongoing normalisation of travel in Asia helped to boost tourism. Weak trade is not an entirely new development. Since the recovery from the pandemic, trade has fallen relative to GDP, particularly merchandise trade. Powered by Commodity Insights |
| The value of retail sales in Japan was up 4.2 percent on year in October, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Thursday - coming in at 13.648 trillion yen. On a monthly basis, retail sales slumped 1.6 percent after adding 0.4 percent in the previous month. Commercial sales shed 1.0 percent on month and rose 1.5 percent to 50.222 trillion yen, while wholesale sales lost 1.2 percent on month and gained 0.6 percent on year to 36.574 trillion yen. Large retailer sales fell 1.6 percent on month and gained 4.0 percent on year. Powered by Commodity Insights |
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