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As on Apr 26, 2024 12:00 AM |
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Singapore's industrial production declined at the fastest pace in seven months in March, data from the Economic Development Board revealed on Friday. Industrial production declined 9.2 percent year-on-year in March, reversing 4.4 percent growth in February. Excluding bio-medical manufacturing, industrial production contracted 5.9 percent annually in March after a 2.0 percent gain in the previous month. On a monthly basis, industrial production decreased sharply by 16.0 percent in March, after a 14.6 percent strong recovery in the prior month. Among the major clusters, production in the biomedical engineering segment declined the most by 34.3 percent annually in March, followed by electronics output with a 11.3 percent drop. Meanwhile, output produced in the chemicals segment showed an increase of 4.2 percent. Powered by Commodity Insights |
The dollar index stabilized around 105.6 on Friday, with investors adopting a cautious stance ahead of a crucial US inflation report for March. This release is expected to offer insights into the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction. On Thursday, the index dipped to nearly two-week lows following data indicating that the US economy expanded by an annualized 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, marking its slowest growth in approximately two years. Despite this, underlying inflation showed signs of picking up during the same period. Additionally, the latest jobless claims data continued to signal a tight labor market, adding complexity to the outlook for potential Fed rate adjustments this year. The dollar remained under pressure against most major currencies, although it continued to hover near 34-year highs against the yen. The Bank of Japan's impending monetary policy decision added to the market's cautious tone, with investors closely monitoring any developments that could impact currency movements. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Consumer prices in the Tokyo region of Japan were up 1.8 percent on year in April, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday. That was beneath estimates for an annual gain of 2.6 percent, which would have been unchanged from the March reading. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile costs of food prices, advanced 1.6 percent on year - also well shy of forecasts for an increase of 2.2 percent and slowing from 2.4 percent in the previous month. Powered by Commodity Insights |
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0% to 0.1% in April, following its first rate hike since 2007 in March. The central bank also committed to continuing bond purchases, aligning with its March decision. In its quarterly outlook, the BoJ raised its CPI forecast for FY 2024 to 2.8% from 2.4% due to diminishing effects of higher import prices. The board anticipates core inflation to reach 1.9% in 2025, up from earlier estimates of 1.8%, citing a recent uptick in oil prices. However, the BoJ reduced its GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 1.3% from 1.8% and for FY 2024 to 0.8% from 1.2%, primarily due to lower private consumption. Powered by Commodity Insights |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced the wholesale inventories and retail inventories advance statistics for March 2024. Wholesale inventories for March were estimated at an end-of-month level of $896.2 billion, down 0.4 percent from February 2024, and were down 2.1 percent from March 2023. The January 2024 to February 2024 percentage change was revised from the preliminary estimate of up 0.5 percent to up 0.4 percent. Retail inventories for March were estimated at an end-of-month level of $788.1 billion, up 0.3 percent from February 2024, and were up 4.4 percent from March 2023. The January 2024 to February 2024 percentage change was unrevised from the estimate of up 0.5 percent. Powered by Commodity Insights |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced the international trade advance statistics for March 2024. The international trade deficit was $91.8 billion in March, up $1.5 billion from $90.3 billion in February. Exports of goods for March were $169.2 billion, $6.1 billion less than February exports. Imports of goods for March were $261.0 billion, $4.6 billion less than February imports. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Pending home sales in the U.S. surged by much more than expected in the month of March, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors on Thursday. NAR said its pending home sales index spiked by 3.4 percent to 78.2 in March after jumping by 1.6 percent to 75.6 in February. A pending home sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale. Pending home sales in the South and West led the sharp monthly increase, soaring by 7.0 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively. The report said pending home sales in the Northeast also jumped by 2.7 percent, while pending home sales in the Midwest plunged by 4.3 percent. NAR also revealed it expects existing sales to surge by 9.0 percent to 4.46 million in 2024 and skyrocket by another 13.2 percent to 5.05 million in 2025. Powered by Commodity Insights |
The Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing an unexpected decrease by first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended April 20th. The report said initial jobless claims fell to 207,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 212,000. With the unexpected decline, jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since hitting 200,000 in the week ended February 17th. The Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving average also edged down to 213,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 214,500. Continuing claims, a reading on the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment assistance, also slid by 15,000 to 1.781 million in the week ended April 13th. The four-week moving average of continuing claims also fell to 1,794,000, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average of 1,801,250. Powered by Commodity Insights |
A report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday showed the U.S. economy grew by much less than expected in the first quarter of 2024. The Commerce Department said gross domestic product increased by 1.6 percent in the first quarter after surging by 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023. The GDP growth in the first quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. However, the positive contributions were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment and an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. The Commerce Department said the notable slowdown in GDP growth compared to the previous quarter primarily reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending and a downturn in federal government spending. The report showed consumer spending growth slowed to 2.5 percent in the first quarter from 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter, with an increase in spending services partly offset by a decrease in spending on goods. On the inflation front, the Commerce Department said the personal consumption expenditures price index surged 3.4 percent in the first quarter after advancing by 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index spiked 3.7 percent in the first quarter after jumping by 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Japan's index of leading economic indicators stood at 111.8 in February 2024, unchanged from preliminary estimates and up from a final 109.5 in the previous month. This marks the highest reading since August 2022, with consumer sentiment reaching its highest level since April 2019. In April 2024, the service sector expanded the most since May 2023, while factory activity saw its smallest decline in 11 months, indicating a near-stabilization in the economy. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Japan's index of coincident economic indicators was revised upward to 111.6 in February 2024 from a flash reading of 110.9 but fell from an upwardly revised 112.3 in January. This marks the second straight month of declines, indicating the lowest figure since May 2022. The country is grappling with challenges such as elevated inflation, weak consumption, and a persistent decline in manufacturing activity, hindering sustained economic recovery. Additionally, uncertainties persist regarding overseas economies, including the impacts of global monetary tightening and concerns about a slow turnaround in China. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Japan's leading index improved to the highest level in one-and-a-half years as initially estimated in February, the latest data from the Cabinet Office showed on Thursday. The leading index, which measures future economic activity, rose to 111.8 in February from 109.5 in the previous month. That was in line with the flash data published on April 5. Further, this was the highest score since August 2022, when it was 112.9. Meanwhile, the coincident index, measures the current economic situation, dropped to 111.6 from 112.3 a month ago. In the initial estimate, the score was 110.9. The lagging index strengthened to 106.8 in February from 105.2 in the prior month. The latest score was revised down from 107.4. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Germany's GfK Consumer Climate indicator rose to -24.2 in May 2024, the highest reading in two years, up from a revised -27.3 previously. Income expectations surged to their highest level since January 2022, with a reading of 10.7 compared to -1.5 in April. Economic prospects also improved to 0.7 from -3.1, while the propensity to buy increased to -12.6 from -15.3. However, the tendency to save reached an extreme high of 14.9, up from 12.4, as uncertainty about the country's economic development persisted, with no strong stimulus for domestic demand. Powered by Commodity Insights |
South Korea's gross domestic product was up a seasonally adjusted 1.3 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2024, the Bank of Korea said on Thursday. Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased by 2.5 percent compared to the previous quarter. On the expenditure side, private consumption rose by 0.8 percent, as expenditures on goods (e.g., clothing) and services (e.g., restaurants and accommodation) increased. Government consumption grew by 0.7 percent, as expenditures on goods increased. Construction investment expanded by 2.7 percent, as building construction and civil engineering both increased. Facilities investment fell by 0.8 percent, driven by decreased transportation equipment. Exports expanded by 0.9 percent, as exports of IT items, such as cellular phones, increased. Imports contracted by 0.7 percent, owing to decreased imports of electronic equipment. On the production side, agriculture, forestry & fishing fell by 3.1 percent, led by a decrease in crop yields. Manufacturing was up by 1.2 percent, mainly due to increases in chemical products and transportation equipment. Construction expanded by 4.8 percent, owing to increases in both building construction and civil engineering. Services grew by 0.7 percent, led by an increase in wholesale and retail trade, accommodation & food services. On a yearly basis, GDP was up 3.4 percent - again topping expectations for an increase of 2.4 percent and accelerating from 2.2 percent in the three months prior. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Amidst anticipation surrounding the release of US GDP data for the first quarter, the dollar index maintained a subdued stance around 105.8. Investors are carefully positioning themselves, recognizing the potential influence of this data on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Additionally, market attention is directed towards Friday's PCE price index report, offering further insights into inflation trends, a pivotal factor for the Fed. The prevailing sentiment reflects a subtle shift, with reduced expectations for rate cuts by both the ECB and the Federal Reserve this year, attributed to persistent inflationary pressures and indications of economic resilience in the US. While the dollar experienced recent declines against several major currencies, its ascent to fresh 34-year highs against the Japanese yen underscores the heightened anticipation for policy cues from the Bank of Japan. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Crude oil inventories in the U.S. unexpectedly pulled back sharply in the week ended April 19th, according to a report released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. The EIA said crude oil inventories plunged by 6.4 million barrels last week after jumping by 2.7 million barrels in the previous week. Economists had expected crude oil inventories to increase by 1.6 million barrels. At 453.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3 percent below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA added. The report also said gasoline inventories edged down by 0.6 million barrels last week and are about 4 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. Meanwhile, distillate fuel inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, increased by 1.6 million barrels last week but are about 7 percent below the five-year average for this time of year. Powered by Commodity Insights |
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China fell by 0.2 percent in March 2024 to 151.5 (2016=100), following a downwardly revised 0.3 percent decrease in February. As a result, the LEI declined by 1.3 percent during the six-month period ending March 2024, a smaller decrease than the contraction of 2.1 percent over the previous six-month period. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for China also dropped significantly by 1.7 percent in March 2024 to 146.4 (2016=100), more than reversing a 0.7 percent increase in February. The CEI grew by 1.6 percent in the six-month period between September 2023 and March 2024, a faster pace than the 0.4 percent growth rate over the previous six months period. The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Powered by Commodity Insights |
With orders for transportation equipment showing a substantial increase, the Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods surged by more than expected in the month of March. The report said durable goods orders soared by 2.6 percent in March after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.7 percent in February. The bigger than expected increase in durable goods orders came as orders for transportation equipment shot up by 7.7 percent in March. Orders for non-defense aircraft and parts led the way higher, skyrocketing by 30.6 percent. Excluding the surge in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders crept up by 0.2 percent in March after inching up by 0.1 percent in February. Ex-transportation orders were expected to rise by 0.3 percent. The report said orders for computers and electronic products advanced by 0.8 percent, while orders for fabricated metal products edged up by 0.2 percent. Orders for both electrical equipment, appliances and components and machinery also inched up by 0.1 percent, but orders for primary metals fell by 0.5 percent. The Commerce Department also said orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key indicator of business spending, rose by 0.2 percent in March after climbing by 0.4 percent in February. Shipments in the same category, which is the source data for equipment investment in GDP, also crept up by 0.2 percent in March after falling by 0.6 percent in February. Powered by Commodity Insights |
Germany's Ifo Business Climate indicator climbed to 89.4 in April 2024, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. Sentiment toward Europe's largest economy surged to its highest level since May 2023, driven by growing expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and a gradual easing of inflationary pressures. Companies expressed less pessimism about the future (89.9 vs. 87.7 in March) and adopted a less negative view of the current business situation (88.9 vs. 88.1). Powered by Commodity Insights |
Producer prices in Japan rose 2.3 percent on year in March, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday. This was up from the upwardly revised 2.2 percent gain in February (originally 2.1 percent). On a monthly basis, producer prices surged 0.8 percent - accelerating from 0.3 percent in the previous month. Excluding international transportation, producer prices rose 0.8 percent on month and 2.2 percent on year. Powered by Commodity Insights |
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